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The latest U.S. inflation data came in lower than expected, but Bitcoin struggled to maintain gains as trade war concerns weighed on sentiment. According to the economic latest data released on Mar. 12, February’s Consumer Price Index rose 2.8%, below the 2.9% forecast. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, dropped to 3.1%, slightly better than the expected 3.2%. Markets responded by increasing bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts. Traders now price in a 31.4% chance of a cut in May, up from just 9% last month. The probability of three cuts by year-end jumped to 32.5%, while expectations for four cuts surged from 1% to 21%. Bitcoin ( BTC ) briefly surpassed $84,000 before falling back to $83,000, wiping off the majority of its post-CPI gains, despite the softer inflation data. Equities were unable to sustain early gains, and other financial markets also suffered. Analysts point to ongoing trade tensions as a key factor limiting risk appetite. Canada recently responded to U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs with $21 billion in tariffs on U.S. exports. The European Union then imposed additional tariffs on American goods valued at $28 billion. There is growing concern that rising trade disputes may raise inflationary pressures and complicate the Federal Reserve’s decision-making. According to The Kobeissi Letter, the U.S. faces a $9.2 trillion debt refinancing challenge in 2025. Without lower interest rates, borrowing costs could rise sharply, further straining the national debt, which now exceeds $36 trillion. Market uncertainty remains high, with investors closely watching developments in both monetary policy and global trade. On-chain data, meanwhile, indicates that cryptocurrency traders are losing confidence. Crypto-wide trading activity has been declining since its peak in late February, according to Santiment. Over the last two weeks, market capitalization losses have left traders hesitant, with signs of exhaustion and capitulation creeping in. Even Bitcoin’s CPI-driven bounce failed to spark any real uptick in trading activity. This type of volume decline typically indicates weak market momentum amid small price recoveries. Gains can swiftly wane in the absence of strong buying interest, leaving prices open to further declines. Retail and institutional traders appear to be in a holding pattern at the moment, waiting for the other to move. Until volume picks up meaningfully, caution is likely to dominate.

Newmarket Capital CEO Andrew Hohns suggests incorporating Bitcoin into government bonds as a way to reduce national debt and purchase Bitcoin for the U.S. strategic reserve. At the Bitcoin ( BTC ) Policy Institute’s Bitcoin for America on March 11, Hohns proposes the idea of “Bit Bonds,” a novel type of U.S. Treasury bond that incorporates Bitcoin into government financing. The idea is to use bond issuance to reduce government borrowing costs and build a strategic Bitcoin reserve , while offering American families a tax-free investment vehicle. Hohn suggested the U.S. government issue around $2 trillion Bit Bonds, with 90% of the funds allocated for government purchase and 10% of the proceeds would be used to buy Bitcoin. This means that for every $100, around $10 would go to BTC. “If it’s a $2 trillion issuance right off the bat, that would mean $200 billion worth of Bitcoin if purchased at $90,000 per BTC. That’s 2.22 million Bitcoin. Of course, the price will fluctuate and likely we’ll acquire a different amount than that,” said Hahn during his presentation. According to the Newmarket Capital CEO, the bonds would enable the United States federal government would be able to acquire $200 billion worth of Bitcoin while saving the government $554 billion in 10-year interest rates at the same time. This is because Bit Bonds offer a much lower rate of 1% per year compared to the 4.5% interest rate of U.S. Treasuries. Thus, it could significantly cut interest expenses. Moreover, he said Bit Bonds would become an attractive investment for foreign investors, because they can serve as eligible collateral for range of different swap and derivative arrangements. According to Hahn, investors stand a chance to receive a 4.5% compound annual growth rate on a senior basis, which aligns with the current Treasury yields. After earning this fixed return, investors receive a 50% share from the upside of the Bitcoin purchase, while the U.S. government receives the remaining 50%. Depending on Bitcoin’s performance, the total returns for investors can be quite attractive, ranging from nearly 7% to as high as 17% annually on a tax-free basis. “It produces a government entitlement of Bitcoin that is slightly greater than $50.8 trillion which is the expected size of the funded federal debt in the year 2045. In other words, with this plan, we’re in a position to defease the federal debt,” explained Hahn. In addition, he also suggested Bit Bonds become available for American citizens as it is a ” powerful tool to defend against inflation.” As a savings instrument, Hahn said the bonds should be free of income tax and capital gains tax for the American people. He claimed a family could invest $2,900 and receive a yield of 7% to 17% over a 10-year period, depending on Bitcoin’s performance throughout the years.

Moving Averages (MA): MA(5) = $0.4750,price is currently above MA(5), jo bullish momentum dikhata hai. Volume Spike: High volume $24.99M turnover ke sath, jo strong buying pressure ka signal deta hai. Candle Pattern: Aaj ki candle bullish engulfing type lag rahi hai jo trend reversal ka powerful signal ho sakta hai. Wick Analysis:Upper wick ne $0.7667 tak touch kiya, jo batata hai ki bulls ne market pe control lene ki koshish ki hai. 4. Bullish vs Bearish Scenarios: Bullish Signals: Price moving average se upar trade kar raha hai. Strong volume buying ka indication. Recent higher low formation - trend shift ka signal. Target if Bullish Breakout: First target: $0.6442 Second target: $0.7654 Long-term breakout: $0.85+ Bearish Risks: Agar price $0.4750 ke neeche close hota hai to short-term correction ho sakti hai. Niche support $0.4358 aur $0.4211 tak gir sakta hai.

Moving Averages (MA): MA(5) = $0.4750,price is currently above MA(5), jo bullish momentum dikhata hai. Volume Spike: High volume $24.99M turnover ke sath, jo strong buying pressure ka signal deta hai. Candle Pattern: Aaj ki candle bullish engulfing type lag rahi hai jo trend reversal ka powerful signal ho sakta hai. Wick Analysis:Upper wick ne $0.7667 tak touch kiya, jo batata hai ki bulls ne market pe control lene ki koshish ki hai. 4. Bullish vs Bearish Scenarios: Bullish Signals: Price moving average se upar trade kar raha hai. Strong volume buying ka indication. Recent higher low formation - trend shift ka signal. Target if Bullish Breakout: First target: $0.6442 Second target: $0.7654 Long-term breakout: $0.85+ Bearish Risks: Agar price $0.4750 ke neeche close hota hai to short-term correction ho sakti hai. Niche support $0.4358 aur $0.4211 tak gir sakta hai.

According to Rekt Capital, Bitcoin continues its bullish momentum, advancing 82% through its current market cycle. The flagship cryptocurrency follows a repeating historical pattern of breakouts, rallies, and corrections. After breaking a downward trend, Bitcoin surged past key resistance levels , mirroring its previous cycles. The price now consolidates near all-time highs, reinforcing the market’s cyclical nature. Notably, resistance near $100,000 could determine Bitcoin’s next major move. The price patterns of Bitcoin in the past built up a repeating structure across bull markets. This type of rally had been observed in 2016 when Bitcoin broke out of a long-term downtrend and went up aggressively in the following year. It has been through some corrective movement and now entering a new phase of consolidation. Something similar occurred with Bitcoin in 2020. The same peak was reached in 2021, and then it underwent a corrective phase. Right now, in 2025, Bitcoin is doing exactly the same breakout and acceleration that was seen in all cycles before. Besides, Bitcoin has consistently respected historical support and resistance zones. Significant past levels include $19,686 and $68,776, which have influenced Bitcoin’s price trajectory. The 2025 cycle remains in an expansion phase, resembling past trends. According to historical evidence, resistance at around $100,000 could prove to be a temporary hurdle. However, past cycles indicate that such heavy resistance often leads into rapid acceleration after being overcome. Furthermore, there is strong support at $20,000, ensuring that big corrections could be overcome in this view of Bitcoin recovery. Bitcoin’s price movement aligns with previous cyclical trends . Each bull run followed a structured pattern of accumulation, breakout, rally, correction, and continuation. Moreover, historical corrections have typically led to stronger long-term uptrends. Consequently, Bitcoin’s current positioning suggests that further upside potential remains within reach. Bitcoin’s price movements follow the same pattern that the price has historically followed. The recent spike in price of Bitcoin is due to the breakout of a downtrend, and it is now entering a consolidation phase. The breakout confirmation points coincide with previous market cycles, thus confirming the cyclical nature of the cryptocurrency. Additionally, major cyclical shifts have historically marked crucial price movements . The 2025 cycle mirrors past trends, where Bitcoin maintained steady growth following a breakout. Hence, the ongoing bull market suggests Bitcoin’s upward trajectory could continue if historical patterns persist. DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.