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What if markets followed a tempo that escapes economic logic? While the US GDP is declining, the S&P 500 is bouncing back after a sharp drop of nearly 20 %. This unexpected turnaround, fueled by contradictory signals, intrigues even in trading rooms. Indeed, at BNP Paribas, strategists wonder: does this rapid correction fit into a global tradition ? To understand it, they dive back into a century of stock market crash history. Between February 19 and April 8, 2024, the S&P 500 index lost nearly 20 %, falling from 6,144.15 to 4,982.77 points. This downward sequence, which BNP Paribas analysts called the “Tariff Crash”, attracted their attention because of its size, but also its context. Greg Boutle, Bénédicte Lowe, and Aurélie Dubost write in a note published this Friday : Recent stock behavior is consistent with previous crashes not related to a recession. They add: “Crashes that occur without a marked economic slowdown can be significant and volatile, but tend to be relatively short-lived.” By tracing market movements back to the 1920s using Dow Jones data, the authors show that significant drops can occur even without a major macroeconomic shock. Several conjunctural elements have confirmed this interpretation and supported the rebound observed at the end of the studied period : While BNP Paribas’s historical analysis tends to mitigate the severity of the “Tariff Crash”, strategists do not overlook the structural vulnerabilities that could plunge markets back into turmoil. In the same note, they warn of an alternative scenario: “stocks could retest their annual lows if a combination of downward earnings revisions and multiple compression materializes.” Multiple compression, which means a decline in stock valuations tied to earnings outlooks, could indeed challenge the current rebound, especially if growth deteriorates further. A resurgence of the market thus rests on an unstable balance between hopes for a de-escalation in trade tensions, conjunctural resilience, and corporate earnings momentum. Moreover, the authors remind us that economic forecasts, even those supported by long-term analyses, can prove to be out of sync with reality. “In 2022, our model projected an S&P 500 around 3,000 and VIX reaching 40 by mid-2023,” they note, before emphasizing that these levels were ultimately never reached. This observation calls for caution regarding current predictions. Especially since other signals, such as the sharp rise in bond yields observed late last week, indicate the market continues to oscillate between fear of a sudden slowdown and hope for a soft landing. Thus, any macroeconomic surprise or a resurgence of trade tensions could abruptly reverse the current trend. Ultimately, while the S&P 500’s rebound seems to validate the hypothesis of a crash without recession, the balance remains precarious. The precedent of 2022 reminds us that even the best-constructed scenarios can be contradicted by facts. For investors, the lesson is clear: market resilience should not be interpreted as a free pass. Between encouraging signs and lingering uncertainties , the coming weeks will be decisive in deciding between a simple technical correction and a deeper economic turnaround.

Ondo Expands Its USDY Token to Solana Network According to official news, Ondo has expanded its US dollar Treasury bond token USDY to the Solana network with the help of the bridge solution launched in cooperation with LayerZero.

Ondo expands its US Dollar-pegged bond token USDY to the Solana network

Goldman Sachs plans to launch 24/7 tokenized U.S. Treasury and money market fund trading services Mathew McDermott, head of Goldman Sachs' digital assets division, said at the TOKEN2049 conference in Dubai that the bank plans to launch 24/7 trading services for tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds and money market fund shares. Goldman Sachs currently operates a crypto derivatives trading desk and plans to launch three tokenization projects in 2025, including a U.S. fund tokenization project and a euro-denominated digital bond. In addition, Goldman Sachs is considering splitting its digital asset platform (GS DAP) into an independent entity to serve multiple institutions and improve efficiency and liquidity.

Goldman Sachs Plans to Launch 24/7 Real-Time Tokenized US Treasury Bond and Money Market Fund Trading Service