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The possibility of a U.S. recession in 2025 has ignited fierce debate among economists, financial institutions, and policymakers, with forecasts split between warnings of an imminent downturn and projections of continued growth. At the heart of the discourse lie conflicting interpretations of trade policies, market indicators, and the resilience of the U.S. dollar. A recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, though the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) also considers broader factors like employment and industrial production. As of March 2025, the economic landscape remains fraught with uncertainty. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, coupled with fluctuating consumer confidence and market volatility, have intensified scrutiny of recession risks. Economist Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, has emerged as the most vocal proponent of a 2025 recession. Just recently, Schiff warned of a looming U.S. dollar crisis that could crash the economy, triggering soaring consumer prices and long-term interest rates. His prediction hinges on a collapse in confidence in the dollar, which he argues is overvalued and vulnerable to a sharp correction. Unlike many peers, Schiff’s stance is absolute, insisting a recession is inevitable rather than probabilistic. Other experts have adopted a more measured approach. Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan’s chief global economist, assigns a 40% chance of a 2025 recession, citing risks from trade policies and potential damage to the U.S.’s exorbitant privilege as the global reserve currency. Similarly, Yardeni Research, led by economist Edward Yardeni, raised its recession odds to 35% in March 2025, noting rising anxieties but stopping short of insistence. Both emphasize that economic forecasting remains inherently uncertain. In contrast, the Federal Reserve’s March 2025 projections paint a brighter picture, forecasting 1.9% GDP growth for the year. The Fed’s baseline scenario dismisses recession concerns, pointing to steady employment and industrial output. However, its GDP Now model flagged a potential Q1 2025 contraction of 1.5%, sparking brief alarm. Officials caution that a single quarter of negative growth does not equate to a recession, though it underscores the fragility of current forecasts. The UCLA Anderson Forecast has linked recession risks directly to policy outcomes. Economist Clement Bohr warned in March 2025 that fully implementing Trump’s proposed tariffs and federal job cuts could trigger sector-wide contractions. Meanwhile, analytics firm Expana predicted a global recession beginning in spring 2025, driven by synchronized slowdowns in major economies. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have also downgraded U.S. growth forecasts, though their recession probabilities remain lower. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi highlighted rising mortgage delinquencies among homeowners with Federal Housing Administration-backed loans as a potential red flag. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, meanwhile, fell sharply in early 2025, reflecting dwindling short-term expectations for incomes, business conditions, and employment. Financial institutions like HSBC, Citi, and Barclays have downgraded U.S. equity outlooks, citing tariff-related uncertainties and their drag on corporate earnings. As of March 27, 2025, speculative traders on Polymarket’s prediction platform calculate a 39% likelihood of America sliding into recession this calendar year. Trump’s policies loom large in recession debates. His administration’s proposed and implemented tariffs on imports, paired with cuts to federal jobs, have drawn criticism from economists who argue such measures could stifle trade, inflate consumer prices, and erode business investment. The CNBC CFO Council reported that 60% of surveyed chief financial officers view policy uncertainty under Trump as a key recession driver, with many bracing for supply chain disruptions. A Deutsche Bank survey pegged the 12-month U.S. recession probability at 43%, while Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff estimates 30-35% odds, attributing risks to spending cuts and tariff fallout. Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital offered a starker view, placing the likelihood at 50-60%. A swelling consensus among economists and institutions raising alarms about 2025 recession threats points to deepening prudence as tectonic pressures—from dollar volatility to fractured supply chains—anchor current discussions. Though the U.S. central bank maintains guarded optimism, cautionary notes from figures like Schiff, Yardeni, and Expana, alongside major financial institutions, highlight anxieties that policy errors and waning consumer trust might trigger instability. Their collective vigilance mirrors an economy walking a tightrope between adaptability and structural stress. As authorities such as Gundlach, Rogoff, and Moody’s intensify recession warnings, 2025’s economic trajectory increasingly hinges on nimble policymaking confronting mounting challenges. Tariffs, fiscal contraction, and worldwide deceleration compose a hazardous trifecta that even upbeat projections cannot easily discount. With organizations revising growth estimates downward and families preparing for uncertainty, discussions now pivot not on whether crises will emerge, but on the magnitude with which geopolitical tremors and legislative decisions might precipitate contraction. 免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。

For much of March 26, the top cryptocurrency oscillated within a narrow corridor, briefly slipping to $85,869 around 3 p.m. ET. Global crypto asset exchanges recorded around $79.59 billion in trade volume during the session, with bitcoin’s share accounting for $26.84 billion. Bitcoin ( BTC) presently hovers below its March 25 peak of $88,539, achieved around 4 p.m. ET yesterday, as traders navigate a familiar script of price stabilization after record-breaking performances. At the time of writing, BTC is exchanging hands for $86,990 per coin. The leading digital currency’s current stasis mirrors historical episodes where it lingered in tight corridors post-peak, a choreography of supply and demand etched into its volatile DNA. Market oscillators hint at collective hesitation, with the $90,000 mark looming as a psychological barrier; breaching this fortress could reignite the algorithmic cavalry in a run toward $100,000. Political tremors from President Donald Trump’s tariff declarations—including a 25% levy on non-U.S. automobiles announced Wednesday—have rippled through equities and crypto markets alike. All of the major U.S. stock indices closed the day in the red. Meanwhile, Gamestop’s $1.3 billion fundraising gambit to fortify its BTC reserves added a subplot to the day’s financial theater. While BTC is $86,990 per coin on global exchanges like Bitstamp, in South Korea, on exchanges like Bithumb and Upbit, BTC is trading for a premium. In South Korea, BTC commands a modest premium as the Korean won cedes ground to the euro in trading pair prominence. The asset’s dominant pairings on Wednesday feature USDT, FDUSD, USD, USDC, EUR, and KRW, while Cryptoquant’s Coinbase Premium Index flickers with faint bullish signals. Bitcoin’s price action meanders through labyrinthine trading channels, its trajectory is still as unpredictable as quantum fluctuations. Potential accelerants loom: Continued institutional embrace via spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate balance sheet strategies could propel valuations. A dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve, spurred by cooling inflation or economic headwinds, might similarly electrify bitcoin. Yet, certainty remains elusive—a reminder that bitcoin markets thrive on ambiguity. Trump’s dual role as crypto cheerleader and tariff provocateur further muddies the waters, illustrating how policy whims can both invigorate and destabilize in one breath. 免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。

For two weeks, Bitcoin seemed to be pedaling in semolina, unable to climb above $90,000. Then, against all odds, the flagship crypto surged, finally crossing the dreaded $85,000 mark. A sigh of relief sweeps across the markets, but it’s not time for euphoria: could this breakthrough signal the start of a new rally? Or merely defer an inevitable drop towards $76,000? Ah, $85,000… a simple number, but oh so symbolic! For roller coaster enthusiasts, it’s the next turn (before $65,000 ?). For analysts like Ryan Lee from Bitget Research , it’s the lifeline: A weekly close above this level could avoid a descent towards $76,000 and signal a bullish recovery. A tad dramatic? Not quite, when we know that BTC is stagnating at +0.9% for the week. The scene is set: declining inflation, stable rates, looming trade war… Yet, Bitcoin hesitates. A psychological war is raging between hodlers and weekend sellers. According to SantinoCripto, “the bottom of this correction is around $75,000”. A cautious estimate, compared to some much darker voices. Alex Wacy, for instance, doesn’t mince his words: A return to $40,000 is possible. But beware of the magnifying effect. As Crypto Rand reminds us: So, should we tremble? Or simply breathe, hold on, and wait for the next twist? With the close above $85,000 ($85,255 at the time of writing this article), Bitcoin seems to have outsmarted the worst scenarios. If the momentum continues towards $87,000, technical signals could align to trigger a new bullish rally this week. Beyond the price, crypto market signals do not lie: long-term hodlers are getting active. Since February, these diehards have been quietly accumulating their BTC, far from panicked gazes. In just two months, over 250,000 BTC have been absorbed, increasing the supply held by these investors from 13.1 to 13.3 million BTC. It’s a sign, proclaim the on-chain oracles. A submarine movement, a silent rise. “These accumulations are what we should watch, not the short-term fluctuations,” notes Enmanuel Cardozo from Brickken. But should we view this as a mere crypto-ant reflex, or a harbinger of an explosion? The market is also driven by hopes for regulatory renewal. Will that be enough to reverse the trend? Especially since shadows persist: global tariff tensions loom until early April. Until then, the slightest tweet can upset the balance. Yet, in this theater of uncertainties, some see a broader choreography. Sandman Research summarizes this well: Bitcoin follows the curve of global liquidity like a faithful shadow. And it has just reached a peak. So, is it just a coincidence or a prelude to the next act of the bull run? Another factor not to be overlooked: the money supply. It also made a discreet reminder in propelling Bitcoin . Admittedly, the correlation isn’t perfect, but history proves it: the two are inseparable.

What Traders on Bitget Should Watch Now As we step deeper into Q2 of 2025, the cryptocurrency market is undergoing significant shifts that demand sharp focus and decisive strategy. Bitcoin continues its steady climb, eyeing the psychological barrier of $90,000, while key altcoins—PancakeSwap (CAKE), EOS, and Pi Network (PI)—are emerging as dominant narratives this week. This article delivers a distilled breakdown of the evolving landscape, what it means for active traders, and how to navigate the momentum like a pro—exclusively for the Bitget community. --- Bitcoin (BTC): A Controlled Climb Toward $90K After briefly flirting with $86,000, Bitcoin has consolidated near $85K following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision to maintain interest rates. Despite a lowered economic growth forecast through 2027, the broader market remains optimistic, especially with President Trump calling for potential rate cuts. Key Level for Bitget Traders: Watch the $86,800–$87,200 zone. A breakout here could catalyze momentum toward $90K. However, caution is warranted around macroeconomic shifts and liquidity cycles. --- PancakeSwap (CAKE): The DEX Resurgence In an unexpected twist, PancakeSwap has reclaimed its position as the leading decentralized exchange, reporting over $14.8 billion in weekly volume—surpassing even Uniswap. Much of this spike is attributed to the explosive rise of meme tokens on BNB Chain such as Mubarak and Broccoli. CAKE has surged over 100% from its recent lows, signaling renewed interest in BNB Chain-native assets and short-term speculative opportunities. Professional Insight: While the memecoin momentum is attractive, Bitget traders are advised to exercise strategic stop placements and consider range-bound setups on CAKE pairs for swing trading. --- EOS: From Legacy Layer-1 to Banking Innovator In a major pivot, EOS has rebranded to Vaulta, signaling its strategic entry into blockchain-powered financial services. The token gained over 55% amid rebranding news, with April set to unveil its new ticker. The rebrand brings integration with exSat, a decentralized Bitcoin banking platform, suggesting long-term utility beyond traditional L1 ecosystems. What to Expect: Rebranding momentum can sustain briefly, but for long-term plays, fundamental metrics like Total Value Locked (TVL) and partner integration timelines should be evaluated. --- Pi Network (PI): Opportunity or Overhang? Pi Network finds itself at a pivotal technical juncture. After correcting from an all-time high of ~$3 to nearly $1, the token now forms a textbook falling wedge pattern—a historically bullish reversal signal. Yet, concerns loom. A massive 188 million PI token unlock this month, with another 1.6 billion scheduled over the next year, could create persistent downward pressure. Technical Positioning for Traders: If you’re monitoring PI on Bitget or elsewhere, keep a close eye on the $1.10–$1.20 resistance range. Breakout above this with volume may initiate a recovery leg. --- Strategic Takeaway for Bitget Traders Stay agile: These market movements are volatile but ripe with intraday and swing trade opportunities. Use professional tools: Apply volume analysis, support/resistance zones, and momentum indicators to avoid chasing tops. Don’t sleep on fundamentals: Regulatory clarity, ecosystem developments, and macro news (like Fed rate decisions or geopolitical trade policies) now impact crypto price action as heavily as technical patterns. --- Final Note to the Bitget Community This isn’t just about catching pumps. It’s about evolving as traders, identifying narratives early, and leveraging platforms like Bitget that offer deep liquidity, intuitive interface, and advanced charting tools. Stay informed, stay calculated, and stay ahead. --- If you found this analysis valuable,for more real-time breakdowns, strategic trade ideas, and Bitget-exclusive market insight. Let’s build the smartest, most profitable community in crypto—together. $BTC $ETH $PI

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