Bernstein: With the wave of corporate holdings and the return of ETF funds, Bitcoin prices may reach new highs

the narrative of Bitcoin prices fluctuates between "gold" and "Nasdaq" correlations this year, but Bernstein analysts believe that short-term correlations are misleading. The key indicators are the exhaustion of retail selling, the wave of corporate increases, and the return of ETF funds, which may drive "supply shortages" to push prices to new highs. Last week, Twenty One Capital announced the initial hoarding of 42,000 BTC (about $4 billion), joining the competition with companies like Strategy. Currently, about 80 companies collectively hold 700,000 BTC, accounting for 3.4% of the total supply. The net inflow of the US spot Bitcoin ETF reached $3 billion last week, hitting a five-month high, with total holdings accounting for 5.5% of the circulating Bitcoin supply. Institutional holdings have increased from 20% in September last year to 33%, with 48% held by investment advisors, reflecting demand for asset allocation. Combined with corporate holdings, institutional capital now controls 9% of the BTC supply. If the US government implements strategic reserves, it may trigger a competition among sovereign countries to hoard coins. The proportion of BTC balances on exchanges has decreased from 16% at the end of 2023 to 13%, but some assets have only been transferred to ETF custodians. Bernstein analysts estimate that Bitcoin will reach a peak of about $200,000 by the end of 2025, $500,000 by the end of 2029, and $1 million by the end of 2033, with intermittent bear markets during this period.