Cryptanalysis expert Hitesh: The real bull market cycle is about to begin, lasting until OctoberEverything before this was just noise---now the real

Everything before this was just noise---now the real bull cycle begins

Author: hitesh.eth

Compiled by: Asher, Odaily Planet Daily

Recently, the price pullback of Bitcoin has led to significant declines in almost all sectors of altcoins, with some sectors experiencing extreme retracements. According to ROOTDATA's data from February 8, since Bitcoin's first pullback on December 17, 2024, the AI Agent sector has seen the largest decline at 72.41%; followed by the Meme sector, which declined by 59.24%; the GameFi sector declined by 56.96%; and the NFT sector declined by 54.8%, with other categories also experiencing retracements exceeding 40%.

Data Source: RootData

Perhaps when the bubble bursts and the market undergoes a round of cleansing, the real bottom-fishing opportunities will quietly emerge. According to historical data backtested by analyst PlanB, all profits from Bitcoin occurred during the red periods in the chart (the six months before the halving to eighteen months after the halving), while the blue periods in the chart were all losses. We are currently in the red period, and the bull market is expected to last until October (starting from February).

PlanB's analysis chart of BTC

Additionally, from a macro perspective, the true bull market cycle in crypto may have just begun.

In this article, hitesh.eth analyzes the vision of the crypto society and explores two potential paths the crypto market may face in the future: one filled with speculation and freedom in an anarchic state, and the other characterized by gradually increasing regulation and control. As the market develops and technology advances, these two paths will become increasingly distinct, and the real bull market cycle may soon commence.

Here is the original content (reorganized for readability):

Crypto Should Be an Anarchic Experiment

The birth of crypto technology was not accidental; its development has spanned decades, driven by thousands of cryptographers aiming to build a truly decentralized crypto society. In this society, legal identity is no longer a prerequisite, everyone can remain anonymous, and governance, currency, communication, interaction, and collaboration are entirely driven by cryptographic technology, free from any authority constraints.

In such a world, people can freely create markets, trade without restrictions, wealth truly belongs to individuals, and the tax system loses control. Power institutions and the banking system have long dominated the economy, deeply entrenched in corruption, while a carefully constructed illusion makes it difficult for people to realize they are already trapped in a cage.

The Awakening Voice of Bitcoin

The emergence of Bitcoin guides the development direction of the crypto anarchic society. It provides an alternative to the traditional financial system, enabling individuals to independently control their wealth without relying on banks or governments. Money has achieved true decentralization for the first time, possessing censorship resistance, transparency, and permissionlessness.

In 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto released the Bitcoin white paper, which was not only a technological breakthrough but also a revolutionary idea. It shook the foundations of the centralized monetary system, revealing the drawbacks of government and financial elites manipulating fiat currency, marking an important step in breaking long-term economic oppression.

Subsequently, Ethereum built a complete development infrastructure, fully exploring the application scenarios of blockchain technology and driving the first wave of the crypto anarchic era.

Everything Can Be Tokenized

A crypto anarchic society needs infrastructure to support tokenization, allowing everything that can be expressed in words or images to be tokenized and liquidity markets to be established around them.

This vision was proposed as early as 1988 by legendary cypherpunk Timothy May in the "Crypto Anarchist Manifesto." He envisioned a world empowered by cryptographic tools where privacy, freedom, and personal sovereignty are realized, free from government and centralized power control. May described how cryptographic communication, anonymous transactions, and decentralized systems render oppressive institutions irrelevant. This manifesto became the ideological cornerstone of Bitcoin and the broader crypto movement, inspiring developers and thinkers to view cryptography as the ultimate tool for human liberation.

If we set aside price fluctuations and focus on the essence of market development, we can see that last year unlocked a key liquidity guiding mechanism—Bonding Curve. This mechanism can create liquidity markets for various text-based concepts. In the realm of images, NFTs have already completed this exploration in the previous cycle. The current experimental direction is to create as many liquidity markets as possible to meet different levels of demand.

Meme Coins as Markets

On the surface, creating Meme coins seems to mean creating liquidity markets that appear meaningless, but at its core, it is about creating markets, assuming some people enjoy speculating on "X" and providing them with opportunities to enter the chain so they can profit from it.

In this speculative process, people form beliefs around certain things, which stem from the theories or data they adopt. Therefore, in reality, we are building liquidity markets for various tokenized beliefs.

The Wild West of Crypto Anarchy

In a state of crypto anarchy, people can trade opinions, trends, stories, articles, songs, memes, research papers, reputations, gossip, comments, recipes, and many other currently unimaginable things, all of which are chaotic.

As written in the "Crypto Anarchist Manifesto," we will eventually reach this stage, and we now have the infrastructure to support various wild liquidity markets. However, the current issue is that most markets are exploited by powerful participants who wish to consolidate existing gains.

Addressing the issue of fair incentive distribution in liquidity markets is to create a reputation layer for the state of crypto anarchy. At this level, participants can verify the creator's reputation before engaging in the market, and creators can also verify their reputation before accepting users.

Two Future Pathways

The current crypto market is at a critical stage, with two paths ahead, each with its advantages and disadvantages. The first path leads to more speculation and freedom, bringing about an ever-evolving state of crypto anarchy. In this state, new markets continuously emerge, wealth is constantly earned and lost in speculative cycles, and those who can adapt and act quickly will thrive.

The second path implies stronger regulation and control, leading to a regulated crypto economy. This offers stable, compliant, and structured investment opportunities, dominated by institutions and traditional financial players, providing a more predictable yet controlled environment. As the U.S. rolls out crypto regulations, the distinctions between these two paths will become increasingly apparent. Regulated markets will focus on "cash cow" projects and Web3 businesses that generate real income, which will also mark the starting point of the first cycle of the bull market under authoritarian control.

Meanwhile, the state of crypto anarchy will continue to change rapidly on the fringes; if there are 100 markets, 99 may decline, while one market will absorb the liquidity of all other markets. The value of attention will rise, and those who can navigate this landscape will continue to win battles. In some corner of the crypto anarchy, there will always be bull market cycles; the key lies in whether one can identify and maximize the benefits from them.