Has Bitcoin Reached a Market Top or Will It Still See Another Monster Rally Towards $276.400? Analysis

Recently, the Bitcoin has been hovering around crucial levels, leaving investors and analysts wondering: Are we at the top of the market or is there room for another monster rally? To answer this question, renowned cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez looked at several on-chain indicators and data in a recent technical analysis to understand the current market sentiment and try to predict Bitcoin’s next moves.

Realized Profits and Selling Pressure

Historically, as Martinez pointed out, Bitcoin’s market tops coincide with peaks in profits realized. In December 2024, more than $3 billion in profits were realized, which raises a red flag about a possible top.

Selling pressure is also coming from miners, who in mid-January sold over 20.000 BTC, totaling $2 billion. This significant increase in supply could indicate that miners are taking advantage of the current prices to take profits.

Additionally, long-term holders (LTHs) are also offloading their Bitcoins. The supply held by LTHs dropped by 75.000 BTC last week, which suggests that savvy investors are reducing their positions.

Capital on the Run and Network Activity on the Decline

As selling pressure mounts, capital is leaving the crypto market, according to the analysis. Since December 10, 2024, capital inflows have fallen by 63,3%, from $134,65 billion to $43,37 billion. This reduction in capital outflows could indicate a waning investor interest in the crypto market.

Bitcoin network activity is also on the decline, hitting its lowest level since November 2024. This signals reduced market participation and could indicate a lack of investor enthusiasm.

Crucial Support Levels and Future Scenarios

Given these factors, it is crucial that Bitcoin remains above $91.700. If this level fails, BTC could fall to $74.000, according to the expert, which could trigger a new wave of selling and deepen the decline.

However, despite these bearish signals, several models suggest that Bitcoin still has room to climb before reaching a market top. Models such as the cycle shifts, the Mayer Multiple, and the halving cycle theory point to a potential market top between $182.000 and $276.400.

“From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s cup and handle breakout points to a target of $276.400,” he noted. “The halving cycle theory also supports the idea that Bitcoin could reach a market peak between May and October 2025.”

Furthermore, the $97.877 level has proven to be an important support for Bitcoin. If this level holds, the bull run could continue. However, a break below $97.877 and $91.700 could put the entire bull market at risk, agreement with the analyst.

At the time of publication, the price of Bitcoin was quoted at US$104.913, up 2.9% in the last 24 hours.