Bitcoin could top $150K before retrace in repeat of 2017 cycle, says analyst

Bitcoin’s price action is mimicking the 2016 to 2017 cycle and could hit a top of $150,000, says Glassnode lead analyst James Check.

Check said in a Jan. 23 episode of the Theya podcast that $120,000 to $150,000 is what he would call the “topping cloud” for Bitcoin ( BTC ), and any level above that likely won’t hold for long.

Bitcoin likely won’t hold at $150,000

“We can absolutely bust out the top end of that, with a very, very low probability of staying at the top end,” Check said.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $103,019, and Check added that the “average guy” is “quite profitable” if it reaches $120,000 — significantly more so if it reaches $150,000.

“Above that is speculative fever, and I probably would think if we go above it, we will go back down through it,” he said.

Bitbo data shows Bitcoin’s short-term holders have paid an average of $90,349 per BTC, while long-term holders have paid an average of $24,627.

The cryptocurrency hitting $150,000 would give short-term holders an average of 66% profit and long-term holders an average of 509% profit.

“A lot of comparisons” to 2017 cycle

Check said, “There are a lot of comparisons” between the current crypto cycle and the cycle between 2016 and 2017.

“The way I would describe 2016-2017, very spot driven, we didn’t actually have derivatives, stablecoins weren’t really significant,” he said.

Bitcoin was consolidating and fluctuating around $800 and $1,600 in the first half of 2017 before surging in the second half to hit a peak of $19,783.

If Bitcoin continues to follow the 2017 pattern, the asset may stay in a consolidation period until May.

“We’re getting these nice moderate rallies, nice corrections, moderate rallies, cool down,” Check said.

At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $104,120, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Other traders say Bitcoin might not hit its 2025 peak until later in the year.

In a Jan. 23 X post, pseudonymous crypto trader Bitquant stated that regardless of Bitcoin’s next move — even if a price correction occurs — those claiming Bitcoin has “topped out” at its current level are “simply setting themselves up to miss out on significant gains.”

Meanwhile, crypto trader Braver shared the popular view that the first quarter of 2025 will see a crypto bull run, but he doesn’t think it will be the biggest one of the year.

“The bull market will rally strong to its true macro cycle top in Q4 2025,” they said in a Jan. 23 X post.

The trader explained that “a true bear market will commence for 2026.”

Crypto trader Mags said that since Bitcoin set a new all-time high above $109,000 on Jan. 20, if history repeats, it could reach its next one within 230 to 330 days — likely between July and October.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.