Who will be the main adopter of cryptocurrency in 2025 after Trump takes office?

Original Title: "Top crypto adopters in 2025: Institutions, retail, low-income countries"

Author: Zoltan Vardai

Compiled by: Bai Shui, Jinse Finance

With increasing regulatory clarity and soaring cryptocurrency valuations, the global cryptocurrency industry is expected to gain mainstream and institutional recognition again by 2025.

2024 set a historical high, with Bitcoin's price reaching an all-time high of $108,300 on December 17, just over a month after Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, and the optimism among cryptocurrency investors is rising.

Industry experts point out that as expectations for clearer regulations under Trump's new administration grow, the cryptocurrency industry may welcome another milestone year, including more institutional adoption and a record number of global cryptocurrency investors.

Regulatory clarity will lead to a historic high in the number of cryptocurrency investors

In 2024, the crypto industry experienced significant regulatory developments in some of the largest jurisdictions.

In Europe, the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) — the world's first comprehensive crypto regulatory framework — came into full effect on December 30, providing comprehensive guidelines for crypto service providers.

In Asia, Singapore is becoming the next crypto hub with its "risk-adjusted" regulations, which helped the country double the number of digital asset licenses issued annually in 2024.

Singapore has 1,600 blockchain patents, 2,433 industry-related job openings, and 81 cryptocurrency exchanges. These numbers are remarkable for a country with a population of less than 6 million.

Chainalysis CEO Jonathan Levin stated that these global regulatory developments will lead to more retail and institutional investor adoption.

Levin said, "We can expect an increase in adoption rates among institutional and retail investors next year, especially as these regulations bring greater transparency to the industry."

He added that these new regulations will also enhance industry trust, market integrity, and consumer protection, "making the industry more attractive to retail investors."

Levin noted that regulatory transparency will lead to a historic high in the number of daily cryptocurrency users and stimulate the growth of institutional products like exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

According to Triple-A's 2024 cryptocurrency ownership report, as of July 12, there are an estimated 560 million cryptocurrency holders, accounting for 6.8% of the global population.

There are a total of 560 million cryptocurrency holders worldwide. Source: triple-a

Pavlo Denysiuk, CEO of crypto payment company Lunu, stated that based on current user growth, the number of cryptocurrency holders could double in the next two years.

Denysiuk said during a panel discussion at NFT Fest 2024, "This is where we see more adoption everywhere and in payments."

ETFs and government BTC reserve plans will drive institutional adoption

The U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund has brought more institutional adoption by making it easier for traditional financial institutions to gain access to BTC investments.

The Bitcoin ETF is nearing the $110 billion mark in less than a year since its launch, supporting analysts' predictions of a $200,000 peak for Bitcoin in the 2025 cycle.

Chainalysis CEO Levin stated that this dynamic will pave the way for increasing institutional acceptance of Bitcoin as an asset class:

"This is likely to translate into sustained institutional interest, as well as efforts by financial institutions and cryptocurrency companies to build the infrastructure and resilience needed to support investor demand."

As an important sign of Bitcoin's mainstream acceptance, Bitcoin's status as a savings technology is increasingly rising in the U.S., thanks to the "Bitcoin Bill" advocated by Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis, which proposes the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

Lummis Bitcoin Bill. Source: Lummis.senate.gov

Anastasija Plotnikova, co-founder and CEO of Fideum, stated that the Bitcoin reserve proposal is gaining strong support due to Donald Trump's victory in the November 2024 election and the Republican majority in the Senate.

Adam Back, co-founder and CEO of Blockstream, inventor of Hashcash, and one of the industry's most renowned cryptographers, stated that if the "Bitcoin Bill" is accepted by U.S. lawmakers, Bitcoin's price could eventually exceed $1 million.

Cryptocurrency adoption in low-income countries is expected to continue growing

According to Chainalysis's Cryptocurrency Geography Report published in October 2024, cryptocurrency activity increased in 2024, reaching a peak reminiscent of the 2021 bull market.

The report stated that the Chainalysis Global Index, which measures the total value of global crypto activity, rose to a new high of over 0.75 in the first quarter of 2024.

Global index measuring the value of crypto activity. Source: Chainalysis

The report added that while cryptocurrency adoption in 2023 was primarily driven by middle- and low-income countries, the peak in 2024 was attributed to increased crypto activity across countries of all income levels, while high-income countries saw a decrease in crypto activity at the beginning of 2024.

Levin pointed out that the increase in global activity is mainly due to the growing use cases of stablecoins in the real world and the debut of the U.S. Bitcoin ETF:

"There are many factors driving this trend, from the launch of the Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. to stablecoins supporting real-world use cases in low- and middle-income countries, as well as a significant increase in DeFi activity in Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and Eastern Europe."

2024 Global Cryptocurrency Adoption Index. Source: Chainalysis

Middle- and low-income countries like India, Nigeria, and Indonesia are leading the adoption, with India ranking first in Chainalysis's Global Cryptocurrency Adoption Index.

In Latin America, El Salvador adopted Bitcoin as legal tender on September 7, 2021, which has brought over $31 million in profits to the country in the first three years.

Despite the $31 million profit, President Nayib Bukele's decision faced widespread criticism after Bitcoin fell from its all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021 following the collapse of the FTX exchange. During the bear market, Bitcoin dropped to $16,000, leading to a significant decline in El Salvador's Bitcoin holdings.

Author and intergovernmental blockchain expert Anndy Lian stated that El Salvador's decision to adopt Bitcoin is an important step in Bitcoin's increasing integration into the global financial system.

Lian stated that similar government initiatives could promote Bitcoin adoption in other countries:

"As more countries consider this path, we may see a gradual redefinition of 'safe' reserve assets. If Bitcoin becomes the primary currency for national reserves, it could fundamentally change the global financial landscape and drive more decentralized and digitized economic stability approaches."

BTC and gold, 1-year chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin could even become the next reserve asset after gold. TradingView data shows that Bitcoin has risen over 131% in the past year, while gold prices have increased by about 30%.

Cryptocurrency investors remain highly optimistic about 2025, especially after Bitcoin reclaimed $100,000 on January 6, just two weeks before Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20 — a move seen as a potential catalyst for cryptocurrency prices due to clearer regulations.

The bullish trend for Bitcoin in 2025 is expected to attract more investors' attention to the cryptocurrency industry, with price predictions ranging from $160,000 to over $180,000.