Industrial Bank International Chief Economist: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50-75 basis points in 2025

Cheng Shi, the chief economist of ICBC International, stated at the 2025 China Chief Economist Forum Annual Meeting that the adjustment path of US monetary policy in 2025 will be a process of "urgency first and then slowing down". It is currently estimated that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in 2025 will be around 50-75 basis points.

Cheng Shi said that there are two main dimensions to consider when looking at the re-inflation risk faced by the United States: First, current U.S. inflation is in an area where it is easy to rise but difficult to fall. The space for further decline is very small and difficult, and there are actually many factors that could drive U.S. inflation upwards. Second, current market expectations have formed an upward expectation for U.S. inflation. Inflation expectations always tend to self-fulfilling prophecy so this would create substantial pressure for inflation to rise.