CICC Research Report: Non-agricultural data supports the Fed to continue to cut interest rates
a research report by Zhongjin Securities stated that after being severely hindered by hurricanes and strikes, the number of new jobs added in the United States in November increased significantly to 227,000, but the unemployment rate also rose to 4.2%, indicating that the labor market is slowing down. Overall, the labor market is still in a state of "weakening employment growth momentum, but the employment market itself is not weak", which will provide a reason for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again in December.
However, it is also predicted that the Federal Reserve will slow down its interest rate cuts by 2025, as decision-makers will become more cautious as interest rates approach neutral levels. One risk of the forecast is the impact of Trump's immigration policy on the labor market, which is currently leaning towards a moderate impact, but extreme situations need to be closely monitored. Based on non-farm data, it is believed that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points again this month.
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