‘Potential top’ for Bitcoin as long-term holders sell 828K BTC in 30 days
From cointelegraph by Ciaran Lyons
MARKETS NEWSCOINTELEGRAPH IN YOUR SOCIAL FEED Follow our Subscribe on
Bitcoin’s climb toward $100,000 has seen a significant amount of offloads from long-term holders, which some analysts say signals a potential top that could turn markets bearish and catch traders offside when buy-side demand starts to wane.
“It’s a game of musical chairs: enjoy the ride, but be prepared when the music stops,” CryptoQuant contributor Maartuun said in a Dec. 8 X post .
Long-term hodlers are offloading their Bitcoin
Since Nov. 8, long-term holders — wallets who have held Bitcoin BTC$98,290 for at least 155 days — have sold 827,783 BTC worth around $82.6 billion at its current price of around $99,200.
Source: Maartuun
Maartuun highlighted the 149,800 BTC purchased by Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy and the 84,193 BTC worth of inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) over the same period.
Still, he said that these are the equivalent of just 30% of what’s being sold by long-term holders.
“The overall market is much larger than just them,” he said.
Maartuun suggested that Bitcoin is maintaining its strength despite the strong sell pressure from long-term holders due to retail demand also reaching its “yearly highs,” according to CryptoQuant’s retail demand 30-day change chart.
Source: Maartuun
“Retail is also involved in futures trading,” he said. CoinGlass shows Bitcoin Open Interest (OI) — a metric tracking the total number of unsettled Bitcoin derivative contracts such as options and futures — is $61.2 billion at the time of publication.
Long-term Bitcoin holders sitting on significant unrealized profits
Maartuun also claimed that the sell-side risk ratio and the net taker volume may indicate “a top.”
Related: Bitcoin dominance hints at ‘altseason,’ analysts eye XRP price rally into 2025
According to Bitbo data , the Long Term Holder realized price — the average price paid by long-term Bitcoin holders — is $24,481, representing about a 400% average gain for long-term holders.
Source: Maartuun
At the time of publication, Bitcoin’s price was $99,203, according to CoinMarketCap.
On Dec. 6, Real Vision chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts said liquidity conditions , as expressed by his Bitcoin MSI macro model, suggest pain may come next.
“Bitcoin has hit new ATHs in the face of a deteriorating liquidity backdrop,” he said.
Coutt said if conditions “worsen, the rally, while euphoric, can only last for a limited time.”
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
The liquidity indicator on the BTC chain is only 0.59, and the potential of the bull market is ready to go
Dogecoin Down 23% This Week as Bitcoin and XRP Stumble After Surges