Week 47 On-Chain Data: Illiquid Whales Still Hodling Strong, Market Has Not Peaked Yet

Original Title: "Bitcoin Price Hits $100,000 Multiple Times, What's Next? | WTR 11.25"

Original Source: WTR Research Institute

Weekly Review

From November 11th to November 18th, Bitcoin's price reached a high near $99,588 and a low close to $80,215, with a fluctuation range of approximately 24.15%. Looking at the on-chain distribution chart, a large amount of Bitcoin changed hands around 90,000, providing some support or resistance.

• Analysis:
1. 56.1 thousand BTC between 69,000 and 73,000;
2. 46.85 thousand BTC between 87,000 and 91,000;
• The probability of not dropping below 87,000 to 91,000 in the short term is 70%;
• The probability of not rising above 100,000 to 105,000 in the short term is 60%.

Important News

Economic News

1. According to the latest report from the U.S. Government Accountability Office, the total U.S. national debt surpassed $36 trillion this week, reaching a new record high.

2. The U.S. national debt has risen from $35 trillion at the end of July this year to $36 trillion now, taking just over three months.

3. ECB board member Kazaks stated: Based on the current economic situation in Europe, a rate cut is necessary in December. The ECB has already cut rates three times, and it is expected to cut rates again next month. Last Friday's PMI data indicated an unexpected contraction in the eurozone's private sector economy. The market anticipates a further 50 basis point rate cut by the ECB.

Cryptocurrency Ecosystem News

1. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted that BTC could reach $100,000 by the end of this year and $250,000 by the end of 2025. He advised those experiencing a bull market for the first time to stay rational and cash out timely. Holding onto the emotion of "I can earn more" will ultimately lead to loss of already-owned wealth!

2. Rick Wurster, President of Charles Schwab Corp., stated in an interview with Bloomberg Radio that once U.S. regulations allow, the company will consider offering spot cryptocurrency trading. As the U.S. regulatory environment changes, the company will enter the spot cryptocurrency market. It is expected to evolve, and the company is preparing for this possibility.

3. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju indicated that the current BTC market has not yet entered the bubble stage. From the realized cap perspective, the market value growth has not been significant relative to the cumulative on-chain inflows. Based on the steady increase in realized cap, there is still room for price growth, with a target of up to $141,000.

4. Last week, BTC ETF inflows reached $3.376 billion, with Grayscale GBTC seeing $2.054 billion in inflows and Fidelity FBTC seeing $0.773 billion in inflows.

5. On November 21, BTC dominance rose to around 60% in this cycle's high. This week, BTC dominance dropped to around 56%, with the market share of other coins significantly increasing and prices starting to rise.

6. Cointelegraph data shows that from November 2024 to date, the stablecoin issuer Tether has added over $15 billion in new stablecoins.

Long-Term Insight: Used to observe our long-term situation; Bull Market / Bear Market / Structural Changes / Neutral State
Medium-Term Exploration: Used to analyze which stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what to expect
Short-Term Observation: Used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as the potential for a certain event to occur based on certain conditions

Long-Term Insight

• Long-Short-Term Investor Chip Ratio
• Exchange Whale Transfers
• Whales with 1000+ Addresses
• Illiquid Whales

(See chart below for Long-Short-Term Investor Chip Ratio)

Long-term investors are offloading chips, but the selling volume is not significant, and the market structure has not been shaken yet. Short-term speculators are actively entering the market and absorbing chips.

(See chart below for Exchange Whale Transfers)

Looking at exchange whale transfers, the outflow of large amounts is starting to preliminarily decrease. This indicates that large-scale buying interest is starting to slow down.

(See chart below for Whales with 1000+ Addresses)

Generally, whales are starting to mildly sell off chips. From this perspective, breaking the $100,000 price point may not be straightforward. It might take some time.

(Diagram below: Non-Liquidity Whale)

A group of whales that doesn't change much, currently showing no significant activity, they still choose to accumulate chips at this juncture.

Mid-term Exploration

• Network Sentiment Positivity
• Whale Composite Score Model
• Short-term Profit Percentage Compound Model
• Cost Structure at Various Price Levels
• ETH Exchange Circulation Ratio

(Diagram below: Network Sentiment Positivity)

There are signs of a slowdown in recent network sentiment growth, indicating that the sentiment of on-chain participants may have slowed down slightly.

(Diagram below: Whale Composite Score Model)

The recent score of whales is still "very high," indicating that this group may still have a strong willingness to hold.

(Diagram below: Short-term Profit Percentage Compound Model)

Usually, when the short-term participant profit ratio exceeds 95%, the market may face some pressure or resistance, affecting the continuity of the subsequent trend for a period of time.

However, there has been a lot of incremental changes recently, with a continuous supply of funds, mitigating the impact of short-term participant profit-selling pressure.

There has also been a situation of excessively high short-term participant profit ratio in the last 7 days, which may create some pressure and resistance in the near future.

(Diagram below: Cost Structure at Various Price Levels)

The upward pressure at the current price level is at 95000-98000 and above. In the short term, due to the intense competition in this area, the overall volatility will also increase.

Of course, the lower limit price of the market has now risen to around 64000. Depending on the dynamics in the market, it may be necessary to reassess the structural changes in the market, for example, the current downward space expectation may need to be adjusted upward accordingly.

(Diagram below: ETH Exchange Circulation Ratio)

The ratio of ETH exchange circulation has slightly increased, indicating a slight increase in market risk appetite, which may also increase its volatility.

Short-term Observation

• Derivative Risk Factor
• Options Intent of Transaction Ratio
• Derivative Trading Volume
• Options Implied Volatility
• Profit/Loss Transfer Amount
• New and Active Addresses
• Sugar Exchange Net Short Position
• Auntie Exchange Net Short Position
• High-weighted Selling Pressure
• Global Buying Power Status
• Stablecoin Exchange Net Short Position
• Off-chain Exchange Data

Derivative Rating: Risk Factor is in the red zone, Derivative Risk is increasing.

(See graph Derivative Risk Factor)

The liquidation amount of derivative shorts did not increase with this market rally, but instead decreased compared to the previous rally, indicating that the market's momentum is more driven by incremental rather than existing positions.

Therefore, although the Derivative Risk Factor is in the red zone and the liquidation risk continues to accumulate, the liquidation amount may not be too significant in the near future.

(See graph Options Intent of Transaction Ratio)

The put options ratio is at a high level, while the trading volume is low.

(See graph Derivative Trading Volume)

Last week mentioned that the market was preparing for the next price swing, and the market rallied again. This week, derivatives fell again, awaiting the next volatility.

(See graph Options Implied Volatility)

The Options Implied Volatility has not seen significant changes.

Sentiment Rating: Greed

(See graph Profit/Loss Transfer Amount)

After the market's positive sentiment touched a new annual high, it once again broke through to a new high.

(See graph New and Active Addresses)

New and active addresses are at extremely high levels.

Spot and Selling Pressure Structure Rating: Both BTC and ETH are in a significant outflow state.

(Net Inflow/Outflow of JianTang Orange Exchange in the figure below)

Continuous large outflow of BTC.

(Net Inflow/Outflow of E Tai Exchange in the figure below)

ETH finally transitioned from inflow to outflow status.

(High-Weight Sell Pressure)

Both BTC and ETH saw some profit-selling from old addresses.

Buy Power Rating: Global buy power and stablecoin buy power remain steady compared to last week, both in a positively rising state.

(Global Buy Power Status in the figure below)

Global buy power remained steady last week, both in a positively rising state.

(Net Inflow/Outflow of USDC Exchange in the figure below)

Stablecoin buy power remains steady compared to last week, both in a positively rising state.

Off-chain Transaction Data Rating: Willing to buy at 85000; Willing to sell at 100000.

(Coinbase Off-chain Data in the figure below)

Willing to buy near 85000-90000 price range;
Willing to sell near 100000 price range.

(Binance Off-chain Data in the figure below)

Willing to buy at 90000, 95000 price ranges;
Willing to sell near 100000 price range.

(Bitfinex Off-chain Data in the figure below)

Willing to buy at 85000, 87000 price ranges;
Willing to sell near 100000 price range.

Weekly Summary:

News Summary:

In the past two days, the dominance of BTC has decreased by 4%. Some currencies have reached new highs in the second half of the year or year-to-date highs. When BTC stabilizes at a high level, it provides an opportunity for other currencies to catch up, often seen in bullish cycles. Overall, there is a high probability that the top has not been seen yet. The market share of BTC still has room to decline in the future, with some speculative funds moving from BTC to smaller market cap projects.

Short-term Impact:
Pay attention to Wednesday's data, as it will impact the probability of a rate cut in December.

On-chain Long-term Insights:

1. Long-term holders are selling off chips, while short-term speculators are actively entering the market to take over the chips;
2. Large exchange transfers indicate a preliminary decrease in whales' buying interest;
3. Whales have done some selling;
4. Illiquid whales continue to hold onto their buy positions.

• Market Tone:
From current signs, it does not appear to be at a peak yet.

On-chain Medium-term Exploration:

1. On-chain sentiment has slightly slowed down;
2. Whales have shown a higher willingness to hold recently;
3. In the short term, new participants may stop profit-taking, creating resistance;
4. The upward pressure at the current price level is between 95000-98000, and on-chain games are intense;
5. Market risk appetite has slightly increased, and significant fluctuations may occur in the near future.

• Market Tone:
Slowing down, volatility
Due to the phenomenon of participants possibly stopping profit-taking in the near term, overall sentiment has also slowed down. Considering this, there may be an increase in volatility.

On-chain Short-term Observations:

1. The risk index is in the red zone, increasing derivative risks.
2. New active addresses are at a high level, indicating high market activity.
3. Market sentiment rating: Greed.
4. Exchange net flows for BTC and ETH are both in a large outflow state.
5. Global buying power and stablecoin purchasing power remain stable compared to last week, both in a positive recovery state.
6. Off-chain transaction data shows buying interest at 85000 and selling interest at 100000;
7. The probability of not breaking below 87000-91000 in the short term is 70%; the probability of not breaking above 100000-105000 in the short term is 60%.

• Market Tone:
The overall short-term market outlook is good. There may be a slight retracement for derivative liquidation, but the market's positive sentiment remains high, with a very low probability of a sharp drop.

In addition, ETH is currently in a consolidation phase, and once it breaks through, it may mark the start of a small altcoin season.

Risk Alert: The above is all market discussion and exploration, not indicative investment advice; please treat it with caution and guard against market black swan risks. This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.

This article is a contributed piece and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.