The US presidential election is in a stalemate, and Trump is gradually gaining an advantage in key swing states
Kaili Macro believes that the outcome of the U.S. presidential election is still difficult to predict, but Donald Trump seems to be gradually leading in some key swing states. As of 11:30 pm Eastern Time, The New York Times believes that Trump has a 91% chance of winning and is expected to win 300 electoral votes, far exceeding the threshold of 270 for election, and Trump's winning probability on Polymarket is 94%. The institution also pointed out that the market has already reacted, with the yield on 10-year U.S. government bonds rising from 4.30% a day ago to 4.42%. The U.S. dollar has strengthened, especially against the Mexican peso, and stock futures have risen by 1.2%.
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