Bitget App
Trade smarter
Buy cryptoMarketsTradeFuturesCopyBotsEarn
Bitcoin’s election market moment has arrived

Bitcoin’s election market moment has arrived

BlockworksBlockworks2024/11/06 00:22
By:Blockworks

Predictions that the US election will fuel bitcoin’s price are set to be tested


This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe .

Harry Potter ran headfirst into a brick wall at Platform 9¾ to transcend into the Wizarding World.

We’re about to do something similar with bitcoin.

This is it. After the next few days, there are no more immediate catalysts and prophecies to fulfill.

  1. The Bitcoin halving: The network cut issuance in half almost exactly 200 days ago. Cycle-maxis predicted it would inevitably lead to a supply shock one year later, as is tradition.
  2. US election: Always occurs six-to-eight months after the halving — and the past two elections have preceded a full bitcoin send to all-time highs.
Bitcoin’s election market moment has arrived image 0 This chart plots bitcoin rallies around the election against each other, as if they all started at once. The dotted line is Election Day (today), and the orange circles are halvings.

Newsletter

Subscribe to Empire Newsletter

Subscribe

Bitcoin rallied from $720 to nearly $20,000 in the 400 or so days after Trump beat Hillary Clinton in 2016. That’s over 27x in a little over a year.

BTC then went 4.2x — from $16,300 to $69,000— in the year following Biden’s win in 2020.

Brainiacs would, however, quickly point out that only two or three halving-election cycles tells us nothing statistically significant about anything. 

Bitcoin’s massive rallies over the years are then just price discovery. And perhaps, elections and halvings are less significant than the global liquidity cycle, for instance (which, coincidentally, is headed for an uptrend!)

While the global liquidity prophecy plays out over the longer-term, Trump’s odds on Polymarket have been tipped as an immediate driver of bitcoin’s price.

Bitcoin’s election market moment has arrived image 1 A god candle is inevitable if Trump wins, the thinking goes

The chart above maps the price of bitcoin (the area in green) to Trump’s odds on Polymarket, in orange. The shaded purple areas indicate when Trump’s odds and BTC/USD were correlated.

They only align about half the time, which probably says they’re not really correlated at all. Although, the two have closely tracked each other since early October.

Still, we’re in uncharted territory. Bitcoin hit all-time high before the halving this time around, an apparent anomaly in the cycle prophecy — just like The Boy Who Lived.

Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. Subscribe to the Empire newsletter .

Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter .

Get alpha directly in your inbox with the 0xResearch newsletter — market highlights, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, and more.

The Lightspeed newsletter is all things Solana, in your inbox, every day. Subscribe to daily Solana news from Jack Kubinec and Jeff Albus.

Tags
  • bitcoin halving
  • BTC
  • Elections
  • Empire Newsletter
0

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

PoolX: Locked for new tokens.
APR up to 10%. Always on, always get airdrop.
Lock now!

You may also like

Announcement of Bitget spot bot on adding 2 new trading pairs

We are pleased to announce that Bitget spot bot has now added: KOMA/USDT, AIXBT/USDT. Reference 1. Spot grid 2. Crash course on Spot Grid Disclaimer Despite high growth potential, cryptocurrencies still face high risks and volatility. You are strongly advised to do your own research as you invest a

Bitget Announcement2024/12/23 08:19