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Bankless predicts the trend of 10 tokens: Which altcoins can still rise under the blood-sucking market?

Bankless predicts the trend of 10 tokens: Which altcoins can still rise under the blood-sucking market?

BlockBeatsBlockBeats2024/10/18 03:03
By:BlockBeats

The predicted winning rate of tokens expiring in October is 70%. This prediction is bullish on dYdX and bearish on Uniswap.

Reference source: Bankless
Original author: Golem, Odaily Planet Daily


In October, the price of Bitcoin opened with a downward trend, falling to around $59,000. However, in recent days, the price of Bitcoin has rebounded well, rising to around $68,422 yesterday. So with the overall market trending positive, how will the altcoins perform in October?


The Bankless analysis team predicted the price trends of 10 altcoins around October, and were bullish and bearish on 5 tokens respectively. This article will sort out the predictions and reasons of the Bankless analyst team, and summarize its previous predictions for tokens due in October for readers' reference.


October expiration prediction win rate: 70%


Excluding neutral tokens, a total of 10 token trends predicted by the Bankless analysis team expired in October, and the prediction results are as follows:


· Forecast bullish but falling: Instadapp (INST) fell 43%;


· Forecast bearish but rising: Maple Finance (MPL) rose 43.56%, BNB Chain (BNB) rose 2%;


· The predicted bearish is consistent with the actual decline: Ondo Finance (ONDO) fell 25.28%, Livepeer (LPT) fell 27%, ETH Name Service (ENS) fell 36.71%, Celestia (TIA) fell 1% , Polkadot (DOT) fell 36.46%, ether.fi (ETHFI) fell 40%, and Worldcoin (WLD) fell 26.07%.


Among them, Instadapp (INST) and Maple Finance (MPL) were the most severely counter-attacked, and ether.fi (ETHFI) was predicted to have a higher return. However, the overall winning rate of tokens predicted to expire in October is still 70%.


Bull Tokens


dYdX (DYDX)


· Track: DeFi


· Reason: The launch of the US election prediction market may increase the DYDX staking yield


Forecast period: October 16, 2024 - January 16, 2025


Price at forecast time: $0.96


Price performance since forecast: up 1.28%


DYDX has fallen 26% since the Bankless analyst team turned bearish on July 23 due to concerns about declining dYdX usage indicators. But now, a bullish catalyst has emerged, with dYdX's recently launched "TRUMPWIN-USD" trading market, which will allow traders to go long or short on Trump's election as US president with up to 20x leverage.


While extreme volatility in prediction markets may require forced deleveraging or closing of winning positions to prevent market insolvency prior to event settlement, it is undeniable that the extreme leverage offered by these contracts is bound to attract a large number of speculators. Despite the recent launch of the product, competitive prediction market Polymarket has already doubled its monthly figures due to a surge in demand for presidential prediction markets; a trend that will almost certainly accelerate as the US election approaches.


DYDX staker yields are positively correlated with the growing demand for the dYdX perpetual contract market. Given that the leveraged US presidential prediction market is likely to be a compelling product, staker yields may increase in the coming weeks, driving token prices higher.


Jupiter (JUP)


· Track: DeFi


· Reason: Grayscale is optimistic, and the product has a high degree of fit with the market


· Forecast period: October 15, 2024 to January 15, 2025


· Price at the time of prediction: US$0.88 Price performance since prediction: down 3.66%


On October 10, Grayscale added JUP to its list of “assets under consideration”, marking the token as a candidate token that may be included in future investment products.


Jupiter is a full-service exchange deployed on Solana. Its core product is a DEX aggregator that automatically routes users' trades to the pool with the best execution price. While Jupiter does not currently charge swap fees and its swap smart contracts do hold assets, the exchange processes hundreds of millions of dollars in spot token swaps every day and could easily monetize its order flow at some point in the future.


Although Jupiter’s fully diluted valuation is $9 billion, 15% higher than Uniswap. This valuation difference may be due to Jupiter’s complementary products, such as extremely high leverage perpetual futures (yielding up to 28% on $700 million in liquidity) and a strong token launch platform.


Thala (THL)


· Track: DeFi


· Reason: Aptos is the leading protocol in the ecosystem and can obtain dividends from ecological development


· Forecast period: October 7, 2024 to January 7, 2025Forecast price: US$0.51Forecast price performance so far: Up 6.14%

While Aptos has not received attention due to its continued poor performance throughout 2024, people are hopeful that APT could become the next beneficiary of the L1 boom, and the ecosystem has performed healthily since mid-September.


Thala (THL) is a comprehensive DeFi application that provides token swaps, liquidity staking, and overcollateralized stablecoins. It is the largest investable application and the third largest protocol by TVL on the Aptos network.


Thala is built using Move, a programming language unique to networks such as Aptos and Sui. Although there are competitors on both chains, the protocol's market share is not encroached by mature EVM alternatives such as Uniswap. In addition, Thala can technically be deployed on Move-based networks such as Movement.


Aptos (APT)


· Track: L1


· Reason: Good fundamentals


· Forecast period: October 4, 2024 to January 4, 2025


· Coin price at the time of prediction: US$9.13 Coin price performance since prediction: Up 9.97%

Aptos has been underperforming since the beginning of 2023, but the token has recovered after hitting a low in August and doubled in the two months prior to this analysis.


Although Aptos's application scenarios are immature and its valuation is much higher than Ethereum, Aptos' on-chain fundamentals appear to be positive, with the number of daily active addresses steadily increasing and the TVL metric reaching a record high.


Aptos has a theoretical maximum throughput of 160,000 transactions per second (TPS), making it one of the fastest blockchains in the crypto space, a feature that makes it ideal for the bandwidth required by high-performance applications in emerging crypto spaces such as DePIN.


Axelar (AXL)


· Track: Infrastructure


· Reason: The launch of new cross-chain functions can take advantage of the recent L1 network prosperity


· Forecast period: October 3, 2024 to January 3, 2025


· Coin price at time of prediction: US$0.65 Price performance since prediction: Up 23.15%


Launched on October 3, Axelar’s Mobius Development Stack (MDS) is the latest cross-chain interoperability standard utilizing the AXL token, providing a set of open tools and protocols that its developers claim will “unlock a whole new full-chain design space and bring new dimensions to building in Web3.”


With Axelar’s Interchain Amplifier, bridge connections between new chains can be easily created at the smart contract level without major protocol changes, making the new interoperability standard support Flow, Hedera, Solana, Stacks, Stellar, Sui, and XRP Ledger by default.


While AXL tokens retain utility under MDS and can be bonded as collateral by network validators to process transactions, the structure also allows for revalidation with ETH or BTC collateral for enhanced security assurances.


The Bankless analyst team is bullish on AXL’s token performance and believes that the interoperability token is well-positioned to ride on the recent outperformance of L1 tokens, which could accelerate increased network exploration and bridging activity.


Bearish Tokens


Uniswap (UNI)


· Track: DeFi


· Reason: Bridging is still needed and the swap experience may be bad


· Forecast period: October 10, 2024 to January 10, 2025


· Coin price at the time of prediction: US$8.35 Price performance since prediction: down 9.1%

 

On October 10, Uniswap launched Unichain, a general rollup built on OP Stack, which aims to become the liquidity center of cryptocurrency and solve the inevitable liquidity fragmentation problem arising from Ethereum’s rollup-centric roadmap.


The network intends to utilize a trusted execution environment (TEE) secured by UNI validators, who provide fast pre-confirmations and earn network fees for their services, while reducing user transaction wait times fourfold from 1 second to 200-250 milliseconds and enabling the long-awaited use of the UNI token as a network gas consumption token.


However, Unichain swaps still require time-consuming bridge transactions, although OP Stack's native interoperability is expected to significantly reduce OP Stack's internal chain bridge wait times and transaction costs.


The Bankless analyst team is bearish on UNI's price because despite Unichain's grand plans for an interoperable future and the empowerment it provides for UNI, the need for a bridge fundamentally creates a worse swap experience. Since profit-sensitive on-chain traders are unlikely to default to Unichain for worse execution and longer wait times, it’s hard to imagine what this experiment will lead to other than increased liquidity fragmentation and worse trade execution.


Wormhole (W)


· Track: Infrastructure


· Reason: New airdrop incentives are not very attractive, trading volume is declining, and the market has difficulty absorbing future token unlocking


· Forecast period: October 2, 2024 to January 2, 2025


· Price at the time of prediction: $0.36 Price performance since prediction: down 17.48%


In August, the Bankless analyst team was bearish on the performance of the W token. It remains to be seen whether Wormhole’s new airdrop campaign can incentivize adoption of the token, and the market may have difficulty absorbing future token supply.


While the token price rose throughout the month in line with the strength of the entire crypto market, Wormhole trading volume plummeted 36% ($255 million) from August to September, and the token price gained a large boost in the days after BlackRock’s blockchain infrastructure partner on BUIDL, Securitize, announced that it would use Wormhole to provide cross-chain capabilities for its tokenized asset products.


Meanwhile, South Korean exchange Upbit also listed W trading pairs on October 2, causing the token price to surge 30% immediately, and the price trend began to reverse shortly after trading went live.


The Bankless analyst team continues to be bearish on W in October, skeptical about the benefits of the future Wormhole airdrop incentive program, while doubting that high-profile partnership announcements can reverse the decline in trading volumes and believing that the FOMO caused by Upbit's listing is fleeting.


EigenLayer (EIGEN)


· Track: Infrastructure


· Reason: The token is overvalued and the actual yield of AVS may be poor


· Forecast period: October 1, 2024 to January 1, 2025


· Price at the time of prediction: $4 Price performance since prediction: down 16%


At the time of analysis, EIGEN was trading at a market cap of $740 million and a fully diluted valuation of nearly $6.7 billion. Although restaking has been touted as the future of cryptoeconomic security, EigenLayer's high valuation may be difficult to justify in the coming months.


From a fundamental perspective, EigenLayer and its applications will inevitably be valued for their ability to generate revenue; while these numbers cannot be determined without live AVS, the profit prospects of the entire EigenLayer ecosystem are also questionable.


Even in the most optimistic scenario, leading AVS may only generate a few percentage points of real yield. Crypto investors will need to absorb the token inflation rate used to subsidize low returns, an inherently unsustainable balance, especially for new services with little or no live integration.


ether.fi (ETHFI)


· Track: LST


· Reason: The token is overvalued and the market can hardly bear the subsequent huge explanation


· Forecast period: September 30, 2024 to December 30, 2024


· Coin price at the time of prediction: US$1.82 Coin price performance since prediction: down 8.24%


In July, the Bankless analyst team was bearish on ETHFI, predicting that TVL outflows would be used to chase other airdrop opportunities and allocate more tokens, which would weaken the growth hopes supporting ether.fi’s high valuation and cause the token price to fall.


But rather than losing market share and TVL to competitors, ether.fi has managed to grow its deposits by creating novel re-collateralized tokens and an ongoing airdrop program, though its perpetual token issuance policy has had a clear negative impact on price. The ETHFI team and investor unlocking is scheduled to begin on March 17th of next year, an event that will surely attract the attention of many holders in 2025, and while the airdrop incentive has proven successful in retaining deposits, ether.fi trades at a higher fully diluted valuation than Lido.


The Bankless analyst team remains bearish on ETHFI prices, arguing that given the extremely overvalued nature of the token relative to LDO, the market will have difficulty absorbing its continued airdrop issuance.


Solana (SOL)


· Track: L1


· Reason: Ecosystem stagnation, performance may not be as good as other L1


· Forecast period: September 26, 2024 to December 26, 2024


· Coin price at the time of prediction: 156.15 USD Price performance since prediction: Down 1.84%


On June 21, the Bankless analyst team began to be bearish on SOL, predicting that the growing disillusionment with the ecosystem Meme coin will lead to its poor performance in the coming months.


While in retrospect, this prediction was poorly timed as it was issued just days before SOL bounced off its range low, a level it has remained at in subsequent months despite multiple retests, during which time there has been notable ecosystem apathy.


Solana’s TVL has been stagnant since the overall crypto market peaked in March. Network fee revenue has been trending downwards, and while its native token has outperformed established meme tokens (i.e. BONK and WIF) in recent months, it is also a risk-off signal that the ecosystem’s golden age may be behind it. This is a worrying prospect for a token that is premised on investor outperformance.


The Bankless analyst team remains bearish on SOL, believing that the relative appeal of other L1s will increase for the foreseeable future, undermining investor confidence in the Solana narrative.


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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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