Latest Developments and Future Predictions of Ethereum Spot ETF: Issuers Submit Revised Documents, Target Price Up to $8000

Author: Nan Zhi, Odaily Planet Daily

Latest Updates Overview

BTC Spot ETF Route Replayed?

This morning, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart posted on the X platform: "Five potential Ethereum spot ETF issuers have submitted 19b-4 amendment filings to the U.S. SEC through Cboe BZX, including Fidelity, VanEck, Invesco/Galaxy, Ark/21Shares, and Franklin." The DTCC website has also listed the VanEck spot Ethereum ETF "VANECK ETHEREUM TR SHS" (ticker: ETHV).

On the other hand, as expectations for the SEC's approval of Ethereum spot ETFs rise, the discount rate of Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) has narrowed to 11.82%. According to related sources, Grayscale has submitted an updated 19b-4 form for the Ethereum Mini Trust to the U.S. SEC, confirming that its Ethereum Mini Trust will not directly or indirectly participate in ETH staking.

In a previous document, Grayscale had proposed to investors that Ethereum could be staked through the trust fund, but this wording was absent in the preliminary proxy statement submitted by Grayscale on Tuesday. Other issuers, including Fidelity, have also taken similar actions (removing staking-related content).

Yesterday, according to sources @tier 10k on the X platform, the U.S. SEC has informed exchanges that they are inclined to approve spot Ethereum ETFs.

Three informed sources stated that U.S. SEC officials unexpectedly asked Nasdaq and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) on Monday to quickly update and amend their spot Ethereum ETF listing application documents, which is usually a requirement before approval, suggesting that the agency may be ready to approve the applications from these two companies. The U.S. SEC must decide by this weekend whether to approve the listing applications for VanEck and ARK Investments/21Shares ETFs submitted by CBOE. Exchanges need U.S. SEC approval for their amended rules to list products, while issuers still need SEC approval for the ETF registration statement to start trading. Unlike the documents submitted by exchanges, the U.S. SEC does not have a fixed decision timeframe, meaning that spot Ethereum ETFs may still take several months to start trading.

Ethereum's Classification Remains a Key Issue

According to multiple related sources, the classification of Ethereum as a commodity or security remains unresolved, so we can see in the previous section that the ETFs in the applications are actively seeking changes, removing terms related to Ethereum's security characteristics. Some viewpoints are as follows:

Van Buren Capital partner and financial lawyer Scott Johnsson stated that the relevant application documents show that the spot Ethereum ETF will still be listed under the "commodity-based trust shares" rule.

Variant Fund Chief Legal Officer Jake Chervinsky stated that this means if the U.S. SEC approves the spot Ethereum ETF, it will have to acknowledge that non-staked ETH is not a security. This would be a significant policy move by the SEC, which has previously refused to recognize any asset other than Bitcoin as a non-security commodity.

Cinneamhain Ventures founder Adam Cochran stated that U.S. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler's continued lack of clarity on Ethereum regulation and the U.S. SEC's unstable and ambiguous stance on Ethereum classification may hinder innovation in the cryptocurrency field and create significant uncertainty. It is worth noting that Ethereum is currently under investigation by the U.S. SEC to determine whether it should be classified as a security.

Election Becomes a Major Factor in Regulatory Attitude Shift

Dragonfly partner Haseeb Qureshi stated that the regulatory attitude shift towards Ethereum ETFs indicates a softening of the Biden administration's crypto policy, as they do not want to lose votes over what they consider minor issues (referring to crypto regulation) in the election competition.

Qureshi added: "In the coming months, the market will see other regulatory agencies also change their attitudes. Note, this is not a complete reversal. As long as the differences can be reduced, that's enough. Trump will definitely be more supportive of cryptocurrencies, but Biden will soften to the point of not completely losing the crypto vote."

Market Forecast

Standard Chartered: If Approved, ETH Will Rise to $8,000 by Year-End

Standard Chartered expects the U.S. SEC to approve the Ethereum ETF this week. Geoff Kendrick, head of FX research and digital asset research at Standard Chartered, stated that if the Ethereum spot ETF is approved, it is expected that 2.39 million to 9.15 million ETH will flow in during the first 12 months, equivalent to approximately $15 billion to $45 billion in USD.

Kendrick stated: "In terms of market cap share, this is similar to our estimated inflow data for the Bitcoin ETF, and these estimates are proving to be accurate."

Additionally, if the Ethereum ETF is approved this week, it is expected that Ethereum will maintain its price ratio with Bitcoin, and Ethereum will reach $8,000 by the end of 2024.

Kendrick stated: "Given that we now expect Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by the end of 2024, this would mean Ethereum's price will reach $8,000."

Su Zhu: Target Price $5,400

Su Zhu posted on the X platform that the ETH price has started to rise. He previously mentioned that if the Ethereum spot ETF is indeed approved, then ETH will rise 80% from $3,000 to $5,400, and BTC will rise to $80,000 (ETH/BTC exchange rate will reach 0.0675), which will also be a new high for ETH prices.

Kryptanium Capital Founder: Best Strategy is to Buy SOL/ETH if Approved

Kryptanium Capital founder Daniel Yan stated that if the Ethereum ETF is approved within two days, the best trading strategy is to "buy SOL/ETH." The reasons are as follows: ETH has risen nearly 20% in the past 24 hours; SOL will be the next beneficiary after the ETH ETF is approved; ETH/BTC rose 12% within a week after the BTC spot ETF was approved, as people anticipated the ETH ETF (approval); this strategy has low market participation and is not a hot trade.

He also reminded that BTC prices fell 15% within weeks after the spot ETF was approved on January 10.

QCP Capital: Price Fluctuation of $1,000 Based on Approval

QCP Capital posted that regarding rumors of the U.S. SEC possibly approving the Ethereum spot ETF, QCP Capital's view is that the spot Ethereum price is unlikely to stabilize here; if the spot ETF is approved, the Ethereum price will be closer to the short-term target of $4,000 and may reach $5,000 later this year; if it fails to be approved, the Ethereum price will fall back to $3,000. This uncertainty leads to higher volatility, but a better trade might be the spot futures basis, as yields are again exceeding 10% now.